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I have a little bit different take on this.

Germany not invading Russia.

1. Germany and Russia stay allied.

2. Germany now sends a lot more A/C to the Med.

3. With more A/C Malta is now starved into surrendering.

4. R.N. looses heavly in ships trying to supply Malta. Fighting capacity now in the Med very low.

5. Rommel now has 3 to 4 Panzer Divisions, and several Motorized Inf. Divisions. And well supplied without R.N or Malta interfering.

6. Brits defeated in North Africa, Oil fields fall to Germans.

7 R.N. & RAF now tied to England in fear of invasion from Europe.

8. Russia, through Afganistan invades India,

9. Rommel now advances into India to protect Oil Fields.

10. Japan advances into S.E.A. taking Singapor. With fuel from Dutch fields and from German held M.E.

11. Passivism in the U.S. still holding strong. The U.S. does not enter the war- since not being attacked by Japan.

12. Russia, Germany, Italy, Japan, take just about what ever they want, from Europe, to M.E. to S.E.A. to Africia.

13. Britian, Australia, New Zeland, hold out (just by the skin of their teeth.

14. In 1944 or 45, the U.S. finialy decides to join the Allies. Only to protect them from being lost.

15. Axis and Allies sign a cease fire in 46 to 50.

16. 1952 to 55 War startes again.

Hay!!!! we were going on possiblities here, So what do you think of these?

THAT IS MY THOUGHTS
SONDER

AAA,

Lets start with this.

Quote; The RN is not likely to allow itself to become irrelevent in the Mediterranean, even if Malta is lost. RN ships and submarines will continue to make resupply of the Axis forces difficult. There is a limit to how much can be supported out of Benghazi, and the RN will still be able to interdict Tobruk. If the Axis does manage to breech El Alamein, htey still have to cross the Nile and the Suez. After that, they have a very long way to get to where the oil is located, and few roads to use once out of Egypt.

You, I think are using the numbers of German A/C used in the Med when Hitler attacked Russia. If Hitler did not attack Russia he could have easily moved (say Luftwaffe 4) to the Med. (Since it would not have been used againest Russia) Luft. 4 had nearly 600 A/C, Fighters, Bombers, Stuka's, Recon, and ground attack A/C. This would have nearly tripled the number of A/C attacking Malta. And could have sunk most of the Capital ships that England sent into the area. With this number of A/C in the German attack, Malta's air defence would have been eliminated quickly. And supplies cut off, and most R.N. ships carring supplies or escorting them would have been sent to the bottom. Just how many ships could England loose with out putting the safty of the Home Islands indanger? With that done, then German supplies and troops could have arrived in N.A. unhindered, except by maybe a few subs.

With the Germans now advancing across N.A. with NOW plenty of A/C. They would keep pushing the 8th army back and back. Also now the 8th army would get supplies around South Africa. Takes longer I think. Also with the over 1 million troops NOT used againest Russia, they could CONVINCE Turkey to let them cross through their land and attack the M.E. from there also. Now the 8th Army is trapped.

Now this one.

Quote; You've now decided to make two major changes in the time line. I see no reason why the US would change its policies in the Far East or with regards to escorting Lend Lease to the UK. These were policies that predated BARBAROSSA, and were not much affected by the war in Eastern Europe. With Lend Lease, in place from 1940, the Commonwealth cannot be beaten.

Escorting Lend Lease to the U.K.- the U.S. lost TWO Distroyers, IIRC. and what did FDR do? Nothing!!! If FDR had tried to start something over the loss of two Distroyers. The people could have blamed him for their loss. By putting them in harms way. The people wanted to stay out of the war. And FDR could not afford to anger them. As long as the U.S. was not attacked, FDR could send supplies and Lend Lease. But could not repeat not get into the war. As to the policies for the far East. Just what were they? EMBARGO!!!!. FDR was NOT commiting troops, ships, or A/C to the Far East to stop Japan. Defend U.S. territory, YES, nothing else.

Hitler attacking Russia was his fatal mistake. With out doing that he had plenty of troops, and A/C to do all of this and more. All he needed is for Japan not to attack the U.S. and the U.S. stays on the side lines.

What do you think?

SONDER

Hay Dave.

Lets start with this one.

Quote;

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You, I think are using the numbers of German A/C used in the Med
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Nope. Luftwaffe fighters do not have the range to secure air superiority in the entire Mediterranean, no matter how many there may be. The RAF and RN should be able to restrict the Axis to Benghazi as their main port.

From MALTA: THE HURRICANE YEARS, and Malta: the Spitfire years, both by Christopher Shores and Brian Cull. Shows that the ME 109F could fly to Malta from Sicily. Also on Dec 6, 1941 III/JG 27 arrived in N.A. to reinforce II/JG 27 all ready there with ME 109F's. Now they were not put on ships and sailed there. They flew with drop tanks. Also with Malta eliminated with Luft 4, A/C. They could spread A/C around the Med. On the N/A. coast, Crete, Benghazi, Tobruk Tunis, Cape Bon, Pantellera, Plenty of Airfields to support attacks on the RN if they came out. Also just what would the RN use as aircover with Malta's air support distroyed? Would they risk their few Aircraft Carriers? With out Brit fighters from Malta the 109's were not needed to escort the bombers and Stuka's.

The Brits learned in the Pacific, that Capital ships with out aircover are EASY MEAT. Remember the Repulse and the Prince of Wales? (I think those are the correct names)

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Also now the 8th army would get supplies around South Africa.
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Which is where they were getting their supplies for during this time anyway.

And they were dealing with a two to three Division Africa Corp. With Malta eleminated, now 2 or more panzer Divisions could be shipped to N.A. and maybe 2 or more motorized Inf Div. That means the 8th army needs a whole lot more supplies than they were getting with just the maybe 3 Divisions Rommel had. And they needed them quicker. Going around Africa would be just too slow.

Quote; The RN would know that. The Axis can keep the RN out of anywhere that is both within Bf-109 range, and outside Spitfire range. That still leaves a considerable area of the Mediterranean. They may lose one or two additional ships, but not more.

As I said above with out Malta just where would the Spits come from? Egypt? With out Aircover the Brits Capitial ships are in grave danger. And outside Spit range from Egypt, the German Bombers don't need 109 escort. With Luft 4's 600+ A/C the Brits ships are DEAD MEAT.

Quote;
Also with the over 1 million troops NOT used againest Russia, they could CONVINCE Turkey to let them cross through their land
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Perhaps, but its more likely Turkey will stay out as they did anyway. They recall too well the last time they jumped on a German bandwagon. As the Germans I wouldn't fancy an assault crossing of the Bosporus followed by an advance through Anatolia in the face of the Turkish Army supported by a powerful and logistically well supported Allied force.

You forget the start of this post. Russia is a allie of the Germans. Germany did not attack Russia. Turkey must deal with Germany AND Russia. Turkey is threatened in the west by the Germans and the East by the Russians. And with the 8th army tied up with Rommel, just who do you think Turkey will throw it's lot with?

Quote;

Escorting Lend Lease to the U.K.- . . . Defend U.S. territory, YES, nothing else.
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How does Germany not attacking the Soviet Union change this? Assuming Hitler doesn't declare war when Japan attacks the US (almost certainly at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941), how many US destroyers sunk by the Nazis and German submarines lost at US hands will it take until one side or the other declares war? It's an excellent bet that it will be sometime before August 1945 - and extremely likely that it would be well before August 1942. [/b]

You are assuming that Japan DOES attack pearl harbor. All the U.S. was doing is a embargo. It did not threaten Japan with military force. Why? because the American people were not willing to get into a war. All Japan had to do was not attack the U.S. and just go after SEA, leaving the U/S. territories alone. And No war with the U.S. With out Russia as a enemy Japan does not have to worry about Russia. And with the peace nicks running the congress, FDR has his hands tied. If FDR looses more Distroyers he is in trouble with the congress and the people. For putting the U.S. in harms way. FDR could have been forced by congress to pull back the DD's so they don't get hit.

In closing, the only reason the U.S. got into the war was Pearl Harbor. The rest of the world was going down the tubes. And the peace nicks could not care less about it. All they wanted was to keep the U.S out of it.

As I said in my last post, I think around 45-46 the U.S. might have woke to the danger. But with out a attack on the U.S. I don't think FDR could do much but maybe sign a alliance with the Brits hoping that would keep them afloat.

what do you think?

SONDER

Hay Dave

Here we go.

Qoute; I doubt they can keep the RN from interdicting Tobruk and giving Benghazi trouble.

Ju-88's and Ju-87's, Remember what Jap Nell level bombers did to the Repulse and Prince of Wales. It has been proved many times over that ships with out aircover are dead meat to attacking DIVE BOMBERS. Oh YES! German 109's escort from Tobruk.

Quote; I agree the Germans can probably neutralize Malta with airpower. Considering though that they had trouble supporting the force they had at Alamein historically through Tripoli (because of the distance and the inadequate transportation facilities), and that your now adding a Panzer Army and a much larger air force to their order of battle,

Do you remember that every time Malta was attacked by GERMAN aircraft for any amount of time. That Rommels supplies came through with out MUCH trouble. When the German Luftwaffa attacked Malta the RN most of the time did not send in anything much larger than a Distroyer. I think when they sent in the Ark Royal in range of the Luftwaffa, she was sent to the bottom. Now I could be wrong on the name of the carrier. Also convoys to Malta never got through with near the amout of supplies needed for the civies or military.

Quote; Considering that most Lend Lease supplies to the USSR went through the Indian Ocean around Africa until 1943, there would be no problem at all in getting enough supplies to operate against any force the Germans can send to Africa.

I think you should check out the fighting in N.A.. After compass, every time the Brits wanted to start a offencive thay had to wait for supplies to arrive. Remember the Tiger Cub convoy, that Churchill sent. The offencive had to wait till it arrived with much needed tanks. So there was very much a problem with getting supplies for the 8th army.

Quote; So long as the FAA are there, the RN has little to fear from German bombers. In addition, Tobruk (and Benghazi as well, IIRC) are within RAF fighter cover.

That does not jive with the history I know. Remember the Ark Royal. (I think that is the name) Any aircraft sent to Malta were launched from carriers OUTSIDE the range of German bombers on Sicily. There must be a reason for that. I think the RN did not want to risk carriers againest the Luftwaffa, Do you see it differently? If the RN did not have anything to fear from the Luftwaffa, then why did not the RN carriers just cruise around the med at will? They did not because they were at the mercy of the Luftwaffa. And with Luftwaffa 4 controling the skys over Malta, it would be hard for the RAF to get replacement A/C in a reasonable amout of time to keep their strenth up. And the Spits would have to take on many times their number of 109F's in fights over Tobruk.

Quote;

You forget the start of this post. Russia is a allie of the Germans.
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Since when and why? They werent historically, even before June 1941.

Remember POLAND? Germany and Russia attacked her and devided up the country. I think they would work well together in dIviding up several other nations. DON'T YOU?


Quote; Not really. Look at the ground. The Soviets cannot bring large forces to bear through the mountains. Nor do they have any reason to do so

Remember how the Soviets brought plenty of troops into and through those same mountains fighting Germans. What would stop them from doing it againest Turkey. And they may not have to. Just the threat of the Germans in the west and Russians in the east. And Turkey would in my opion say come on in. Then she remains in good with the Russians and Germans. With the 8th army tied up with a reinforced Rommel, NO help from there. Correct? A reason you ask? It clears the Russians western flank so they can go into India through afganistan. More places to take and rule.

Quote; Considering that an attack on the Dutch East Indies would historically have resulted in a US declaration of war, I wonder why they would not in this scenario.

First, What history? The U.S. did not do anything about the Dutch East Indies at any time that I can remember. If you know of when and where please let me know. And again the only threat the U.S. posed to japan was the embargo. There was no threat of war at any time as to what the Japanes were doing in China or anywhere else. Am I correct?

Quote; They werent worried about Russia anyway. It wasnt Japans enemy until 1945. Indeed, they had fairly cordial relations (all things considered). Japan even let non-military Lend Lease aid, like food and fuel, to go unmolested from the US to Vladivostok, so long as it was carried in neutral or Soviet shipping.

Then please explain why so many Japanese Divisions, and Airforce units were kept on the boarder with Russia in CHINA all during the war. As to leting Lend Lease through. Do you think the Russians would not take it kindly if the Japanese did stop the flow. And just may start to move toward open action with Japan if the Japanese did that.

Japan and Russia fought a very short war in Kalken Gaul. (bad spelling) in the 30's. And Japan got it's butt kicked badly. They did not want to take on the Russians again.

Quote; They were already in the war in a very important way. US public opinion was supportive of Lend Lease aid to the Allies and of naval escorts for it. The US and Japan were heading for war quite independently of events in Eastern Europe. You may also wish to recall that it was Germany who declared war on the US, not the other way round.

Dave, I don't know where you get this. No offence ment. But FDR lost TWO Distroyers. And what did he do?NOTHING!!!!! Why? Again and Again, the PEACE NICKS controled the congress and held the national vote.
That is why it took Pearl Harbor to bring the U.S. into the war. THE U.S. WAS ATTACKED AND NOW HAD TO FIGHT. Otherwise I ask you why did not the U.S. get into the war earlier??? The peace nicks did not care what happened in the war as long as the U.S. was not attacked. FDR had a hard time just to get Lend Lease through congress. There were calls that he was leading the U.S. into war. No as long as the U.S. was not attacked the U.S. would have stayed out of the war. Your point that Germany declared war on the U.S. PROVES my point. FDR did not ask congress for a state of war on Germany, in his speach to congress, a day or so after Pearl Harbor. Only on Japan.

Sorry out of time. looking forward to your reply

SONDER